“The balance of power in Asia would be tipped quite decisively in favor of China should Taiwan fall into China’s hands,” said Robert Ward, Japan chair at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Looking seaward, China is “sort of hemmed in” right now, he said, referring to the First Island Chain—a string of archipelagoes off the country’s east coast made up largely of a trio of U.S. partners: Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. China “clearly wants to break out of that,” Ward said.
In a conflict, Taiwan’s fate would become quickly intertwined with the U.S.-Japan security alliance. To repel a full-scale attack, Taipei would need America—its main defense partner—to join the fight. To fight effectively, American forces would need Japan.