Militaries worldwide are grappling with breakneck technological change and the lessons from Ukraine and the Persian Gulf
Drone-centered warfare, and with it the accessibility of abundant cheap precision munitions, is here to stay. So is the spread of other capabilities, such as long-range ballistic and cruise missiles, that used to be the preserve of major powers and, even for them, were too expensive for mass use. Meanwhile, the development of autonomous systems guided by artificial intelligence heralds an even more momentous turn.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if 2026 is remembered for centuries to come as a year in which a major breakthrough in military technology was made—akin to gunpowder and the like—which is autonomy,” he said.
The key feature of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and likely of other major conflicts to come, is that what used to be cutting-edge weapons and technologies becomes outdated within months. “If you have an adaptive adversary, it’s the speed of iteration and the rate of learning that matter, rather than the technology per se,” Mosley added.
One example of adaptability is Ukraine’s new procurement system for drones, which account for over 90% of enemy losses, electronic warfare systems and some other key weapons. It is fundamentally different from how Western militaries, with their centralized defense budgets, operate.
Under a system introduced last August, Ukrainian brigades are allocated “e-points” based on how many Russian soldiers and pieces of equipment they successfully hit, with drones providing video footage as proof of these engagements. Converting these “e-points” into money via the country’s Delta battlefield management network, brigades can then quickly purchase new systems directly from manufacturers, through a classified online marketplace. As direct relationships develop, the weapon becomes, in a way, a subscription service rather than an object, constantly updated and redesigned to fit changing battlefield conditions.